Since its creation in 1948 Israel has been at war with its neighbors and it appears there is no end in sight.
The last time its was Gaza, a small overcrowded strip of land ruled by Hamas, wanting to break free of a sea and land blockade by Israel, that rendered it citizens “prisoners” according to Khaled Meshal.
Israel answer was that ‘Hamas left them with no other choice as they will not sit still and allow their rockets to rein on its citizens’. Its should be obvious to everyone that Israel was militarily superior to Hamas as evidenced by the lopsided death toll inflicted on Gazans, before ending in 2014, by way of a ceasefire-involving both parties.
With much discussion about the indiscriminate killing and maiming of innocent Palestinians comes a toll the Israelis will have to pay, and that includes public perception: Does the the punishment fits the crime?
You could say the people of Gaza got just what they deserve for not voting its leaders out of office. It’s not that simple.
Lets be honest democracies in the Middle East are as rare as hen teeth. If Palestinians continue to absorb the brutal punishment from Israelis and not rise against its leaders then world opinion may switch from Israel in favor of the Palestinians. And if that happens Western powers backing Israel financially and militarily will rethink their position in the Middle East. Prime Minister Nethanyahu is enjoying considerable support in Israel for his heavy handed reaction to the unrest, but the world stage is not particularly impressed with the Israeli leader. Strong criticism coming out of Europe and America is gaining strength and may push the United States and its international partners to force Israel into serious negotiations.
But first they will have to deter Israel from building illegal housing units on Palestinian land. It doesn’t appear anyone in the West is willing to push this issues strongly. President Obama took it to the Israeli Government and met strong resistance, so he shifted gears and established a relationship with Persia and signed on to the Iranian Nuclear Deal, one his signature piece of foreign policy legislation. With President Trump in office no great pressure will make the Government of Israel stop building units.
The Arabs are divided so they can’t put up a united front. In fact Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabs enjoy improved relations with Israel and are looking at ways to meddle in the internal affairs of Iran. Maybe they can get some help in that department from Trump and Nethanyahu.
If the Iranians remain united and gain clear passage from the Persian gulf to the Mediterranean Sea—Houston we have a problem. Picking up Shia Arab fighters in Iraq and Syria will not be a problem. Add on to that will be thousands of battle hardened fighters from Hezbollah firing missiles from Shebaa Farms and the Golan Heights aiming to engage Israel into the Real Mother of all Wars.
Trump will only last one term if that long. Maybe–just maybe–the next President will lean in the direction of Obama and make warm gestures to the Islamic Republic of Iran and its brand of Islam called Shiism. The Iranian leaders aren’t as fanatical as some would lead you to believe. It’s a very educated society with a proud history of achievements. But they will receive strong competition from the equally strong and educated Turks, who are mostly Sunni Muslims and their biggest rivals for influence in the Levantine.
The Human Rights organizations and NGOs will continue to bring attention to excessive force used against the Palestinians by the Israeli Government in order to break their will. And if Nethanyahu forget about a two-state solution and amp up illegal construction, the next group of world leaders may turn a favorable eye towards Iran and nod as they will have public opinion on their side.
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