Will Peace Talks in South Africa Produce Peace in Ethiopia?
AU peace talks in South Africa hasn’t produced concrete results so far, as Olusegun Obasanjo envoy to the Horn of Africa is in discussion with the warring parties.
Tigray is on fire and TPLF leaders are not letting up as children are handed guns if lucky, maybe knifes or sticks to splatter the blood of surging Ethiopian National Defense Forces(ENDF) hell bent on destroying the enemy.
Debretsion Gebremichael leader of the once mighty Tigray People’s Liberation Front is on his last leg as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his superior forces, including drones, plus Eritrean Soldiers are going through Tigray Region like knife thru butter. Latest reports say Shire, Adwa and maybe Adirgrat have fallen in the North, along with Korem and Alamata in the South. There are battles going on near Mekelle the capital, but no word the large city has fallen.
According to Ghent University Research group more than 100,000 fighters killed on both sides since November 20, 2020 when TPLF soldiers attacked ENDF in Northern Tigray.
Tribalism is at Play Here
For some strange reasons Debretsion and Getachew Reda spokeman for the party are under the belief that Ethiopia can’t progress or develop unless Tigrayans are in charge. Abiy from the Oromo ethnic group and a devoted pentacostal christian is proving them wrong, without assistance from western leaders who has sanctioned his government for cutting internet and basic services including banking in Tigray.
The cry of Tigrayan Nationalism is no longer ringing in the ears of the masses, but Ethiopian Unity and Abiy’s Centralized government with headquarters in Addis Ababa is closer to reality, than U.S. and Western Media are pushing, through a false narrative. They have been backing TPLF as winners and Abiy’s government as losers.
TPLF with the help of Eritrean Army defeated the DERG government in 1991 inserting Meles Zenawi a Tigrayan, as President of Ethiopia 1991-1995 again as Prime Minister from 1995 till his death in 2012. While in office the country experienced economic growth but used his office to build the TPLF Regional Army to equal or surpass the ENDF.
The Zenawi regime was authoritarian, repressive and corrupt using extreme force in many instances to quell protests from Oromo and Amhara communities who felt they were marginalized. With special financing from U.S., western countries and their media praising Zenawi’s leadership, even after thousands were killed by his government and claiming 99% of the votes during election.
Now with Oromo(Cushitic) in power the country is progressing at a slower economic pace due to western pressure and Abiy’s inability to follow American instructions. He is interested in Ethiopian Unity and pressing for a centralized government with all powers from the capital Addis Ababa, and TPLF is not hearing that; so that’s the way the cookie is crumbling. It may be a sign of history repeating itself as Tigray(Semitic) wants to maintain control and keep the land grabbed from Amhara region when they took power. Now Amhara (Semitic) and its militia “FANO” is in charge of a large swath of Western Tigray.
Abiy May Survive and Unite Ethiopia
In order for unity ENDF must take total control of Tigray and replace TPLF leadership with a moderate regional government interested in peaceful co-existence with neighboring tribes. The Oromo Liberation Army(OLA) is at war with Abiy and Amhara soldiers for land and power, it may be an ancient Semetic vs Cushitic feud that is leading to an all out war. The Somali Region(Cushitic) has had skirmishes with OLA and Afar Region(Cushitic) for land and power also. Let’s not forget Eritrea predominately semetic with a large Cushitic populace(Afars) and complete hatred for every thing Tigray.
The Task of Ethiopian Unification seems Huge for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, but being an educated and deeply religious leader, he may be what Ethiopia is dying for.
Hubie Jones
hubiejones.com 