PM Abiy Ahmed wants a new regional government in lockstep with his Prosperity Party, with sights on destroying militarily the mighty Tigray Peoples Liberation Front and arrest defiant leaders.
Ahmed fought alongside the TPLF soldiers to defeat the brutal Derg Regime in Ethiopia (1991), and now he is fighting old allies in Tigray to consolidate his authority across the country.
Make no mistake, the war going in Ethiopia is about the TPLF not willing to disband and join Ahmed’s Prosperity Party which would put all regions under the Federal Government’s thumb. A centralized system run from Addis Ababa.
Debretsion Gebremichael, Chairman of the TPLF rejected Ahmed calls for postponing elections because of Corona Virus, and voted to reject his Prosperity Party, leaving Tigray Region under TPLF control. And that is against the Prime Minister’s plan for a smooth transition in order to improve relations with Eritrean strongman Isaias Afwerki, so he can have access to Asmara the capital and Massawa Port.
Better relations with Afwerki is not what TPLF leaders are in favor of, in fact they have labeled the Eritrean government as mortal enemies. Meaning, they won’t relinquish political or military power to the federal army, without a fight. They have weapons, soldiers and cache of cash to continue fighting for a long time, because they are a battle hardened tribe, in a land of ancient history.
The Aksumite Kingdom located in Tigray Region and Eritrea was on the level of the Roman and Persian Empire, and held sway over the Arabian Peninsula while conquering the Himyarite Kingdom. Christianity (Ethiopian Orthodox) was officially a state religion around 330 A.D. and Tigray Region including Aksum was at the forefront. The Battle of Adwa located down the road from Aksum is where Ethiopia defeated an invading Italian Army in 1896 with designs on African Landscape.
The federal army is a professional army and one of the strongest on the African Continent, but it is going through trying times as many soldiers have switched allegiance to fight for Tigray, including ranking officers, who dominated the military as well as the government under Meles Zenawi, former PM of Ethiopia from Tigray Region.
In order for PM Ahmed to consolidate power he will have to defeat the Tigray Army thoroughly and decisively, otherwise the longer it lingers, the better it looks for Gebremichael and TPLF fighters.
It is time for Ethiopia to unite and become one, leaving tribal loyalty behind in favor of putting the country first and foremost, something that is hard to do in a region that has been plagued by ethnic violence for centuries.
Time will tell if Ahmed is successful in his quest for absolute power.
hubiejones.com 